The Logistic Regression as an Instrument of the Personnel Policy in an Organization

Author Name(s): David B. Katz, Diana I. Makhmutova, Nadezhda A. Opokina
Author Email: katzdavid89@gmail.com

Abstract

Satisfaction with work is one of the most important factors in ensuring high productivity and stability of an enterprise. The purpose of this paper is to identify and analyze the factors influencing the satisfaction, and to develop a model that allows us to determine the possible problem of high personnel turnover and the mechanisms for its resolution. In the survey there were used data from the questionnaire provided by the Russian Monitoring of the Economic Situation and People Health of the National Research University – Higher School of Economics (RLMS-HSE) and the binary logistic regression method, in which the dependent variable is labor satisfaction, and the independent variables are groups of social, economic and institutional factors. The model for the construction activity sphere developed with the help of the statistical software package SPSS, makes it possible to calculate the probability that an employee under study is satisfied with his/her work, and showed that the average duration of a working day at the primary work location, the level of education, the satisfaction with one’s material situation, opportunities to improve housing conditions are the most valuable among the factors under consideration. The authors obtained an effective tool that can be used in personnel management both to determine the threat of staff turnover and to select the necessary measure of influence on sensitive indicators in order to increase job satisfaction of an employee under study.

Introduction

In this paper, the attention of the authors is drawn to the method of determining the satisfaction of employees in the construction sector with their work. The relevance of the research lies in the fact that advanced approaches in personnel management that take into account the modern challenges of a difficult period of the economy development are one of the key factors in increasing the competitiveness and profitability of production, since the human factor is one of the determining factors in production growth [1].

Methods of personnel management, where sociological studies are taken into account in addition to economic analysis, create an effective management mechanism for working with personnel in various areas of human professional activity and are indicators of the enterprise development level [2].

The idea of the nature and trends of changes in job satisfaction provides important information about the stability within the organization that is necessary to improve the effectiveness of management strategies, productivity and quality of productive activities, promptly stimulating staff and reducing the number of violations of labor discipline and the level of staff turnover [3, 4].

Analysis of the literature helped to find out that “job satisfaction” is the object of consideration of various sciences and researchers from various countries since the 20s of the last century [5]. The authors of the paper focused on the job satisfaction position as a personal assessment of their work situation. According to E. Mayo, the factors influencing the satisfaction with work include the form of ownership of the enterprise and their share in the ownership as a form of external control and the possibility of participation in management. According to F. Herzberg, satisfaction / dissatisfaction with work is due to the influence of a set of motivating factors responsible for the process of “satisfaction – lack of satisfaction” and hygiene factors responsible for the process of “dissatisfaction – the lack of dissatisfaction” [6]. These factors included: the content of labor (the diversity of skills, the identity and importance of the task, autonomy and feedback), personal and collective achievements such as qualifications, education, length of service, prestige of the position, responsibility, career opportunities, labor conditions, relationships in the team, pay, methods used to control employees, some aspects of the employee’s personal life, and security [7,8].

Satisfaction with work is dynamic. The activity type [9,10] and the social group of the employee under survey can lead to a change in the factors affecting satisfaction [11], therefore, we focused on one area of activity when developing the satisfaction model.

Factors motivating labor activity also have influence [12].Different researchers include the following factors to their list: salary, social insurance, the possibility of career growth, the administrative regime in the enterprise, working microclimate, maintaining a positive assessment of achievements.

The purpose of our study is to identify and analyze the degree of influence caused by various groups of factors on the level of job satisfaction, which is necessary to determine the practical means and instruments that affect the increase of satisfaction, and also to build a mathematical model of job satisfaction by the example of employees in the construction sector as a convenient tool for monitoring and management.

Logistic regression as a part of Data Mining methods is increasingly used, including in personnel management, as a method of studying dependencies and finding regularities in analyzing data of an arbitrary nature, both quantitative and qualitative [13].Logistic regression is a convenient tool both in forecasting the state of a binary dependent variable, in our case – satisfaction with the work of personnel, and when selecting the attributes that affect this variable [14].The independent variables are the socio-demographic and economic data on employees considered. In the computational experiment, the results of calculating the probability from the model developed on the basis of the data obtained in the construction industry are shown. The selection of characteristics is made on the basis of the received evaluations of logistic regression coefficients. Personnel decisions can be made on the basis of the calculated probabilities.

The evaluation of the validity of the developed model is based on the classification table and ROC analysis.

Conclusion

In the work, the indicators influencing the satisfaction of the respondent’s work were considered. In the course of the study, factors influencing the respondent’s satisfaction with his/her work were selected from them, i.e. a list of variables for modeling was generated. Using the statistical software package SPSS, a model of respondent satisfaction with their work based on binary logistic regression was constructed. Special attention is paid to the study of the quality and prognostic properties of the constructed model.

Acknowledgments

This work was carried out in accordance with the Russian Government Program of Competitive Growth of Kazan Federal University

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