Forecasting of Changes in Service System during the Launch Period of the New Automobile Lineup

Author Name(s): Polina A. Buyvol, Irina V. Makarova, Larisa M. Gabsalikhova, Vadim G. Mavrin, Ksenia A. Shubenkova
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The purpose of the research is developing tools for forecasting changes in the service system during the period when new models of automotive vehicles are being introduced to the market. Research objectives: development of the structure and composition of decision support systems to improve the competitiveness of the service system, development of a mathematical model of a dealer-service network and a simulation model of the network of the Republic of Kazakhstan. The simulation model takes into account the following parameters: the percentage of satisfaction for applications for spare parts directly from the warehouse, the number of posts, the number of workers, the distribution of the flow of applications from the concentration of vehicles in the service center, the mode of operation of the service center. The following research methods were used: methods of system analysis and mathematical statistics, elements of the theory of reliability, simulation, computer experiment. After verification and validation of the developed model, a computer experiment was conducted with the current parameters. The obtained simulation values are reliable at a 5% significance level. The following result was achieved: a simulation model was built for the functioning of the dealer-service network that can be used in strategic planning for expanding the service network and entering new markets.


The rapid development of techniques and technologies as well as the globalization of economics and increased competitiveness have led to shortening the launch period of new products. For high-tech products, this is associated with the liability of manufacturers to maintain them in working capacity until the end of the life cycle. Ensuring the customers’ loyalty should be treated as a mandatory condition to achieve success of the company in competitive struggle [1]. One of the ways to increase the competitiveness of both the whole service system is the regulation of processes in each network unit by the manufacturer’s feedback. The decision-support systems (DSS) are developed for these purposes. Such approach is especially actual in situations when resources are limited or in the case of launching new auto models to the market.


The performed researches have shown that only system solutions for increasing the reliability at all stages of the life cycle of automotive equipment will make it possible to increase its competitiveness, as well as to ensure the possibility of trouble-free operation. Realization of scientific approach at improvement of branded automotive service system helps to react to the arising problems at operation of vehicles of a new model range quickly, having provided possibility of improvement of constructive decisions.

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